Monday, November 5, 2012

Event Details:
Date: 7 November 2012, Wednesday
Time: 9.00 am - 12.00 pm (Registration starts at 8.30 am. Light refreshments will be served.)
Venue: DBS Auditorium 1, Marina Bay Financial Centre Tower 3, Level 3
12 Marina Boulevard, Singapore 018982
I will be attending the seminar.
Enhancing your business strategy” seminar by DBS.

The first speaker was an excellent presenter and is an experienced economist. For 2013, he predicted that the Singapore economy will slow down, interest rates would still remain low. Private residential properties would be in a large supply but he did not expect prices to crash.

His reasons for the 2012 slow growth in the Asian economy was due to the slow down in China investments (China being responsible for 56% of Asia) and change of China's policy towards domestic consumerism, 50 rate hikes in 2010 butt 14 rate cuts in 2011.

He said the above were the main contributing causes rather than just the euro debt crisis and the slow economic recovery in the US affecting Asia exports, as predicted by the other economists. .

Asia's manufacturing ans services would be affected in 2013

As for Singapore, 2007-2008 had a net inflow of 300,000 foreign workers in 2 years. The hikes in foreign worker policies and other fees just pass the increase cost to the customer, thereby increasing the inflation in 2011.

For the property market in Singapore, mortgage rates is below 2%. The real mortgage rate is negative. The global interest rate is so low. Therefore property prices go up.

Singapore is losing out to competitors due to a strong S$ and higher inflation. In the 4 quadrants in his chart, Singapore is on the upper left. Philipines, China, Thailand and Myanmar is in the lower right. Hongkong and Thailand is on the lower left. 

GDP Singapore is largely due to external factors. The real median income growth should be the target. The focus should not be on productivity growth factors

In conclusion, 2013 - poor economic outlook for Singapore due to slower than normal growth (cutting down foreign worker employment after the general elections) and higher than normal inflation.  

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